Renegades!

The West's Eastern Edge

In Kiev, the frontline of the battle against tyranny has opened up. The opposing sides are engaged in a straight ahead fight, the geographic basis of the fight being east vs. west, as the map clearly shows. Previously, the same battle divided a major European power in two: Germany. Berlin, having fallen to the west opened the eastern states to rapid liberalization.

In the last 15 years, the forces of autocracy seemed to be in permanent regression. In fact, at the beginnning it seemed destined to overwhelm the largest country by population: China. Tyranny and despotism fought back and regained their toehold however: a headlong rush into liberalization brought opportunity for mobs, sychophants and former tough men of the old regime. The epic fight between Burke, the slow reformer vs. Paine, the instant revolutionary seemed to be going Burke's for once.

Ukraine has been down the road of slow reform, as patient democrats watched their neighbours join the EU and prosper under liberalization. Meanwhile, the linguistic, geographic, ethnic, religious and cultural ties of Ukraine's eastern shore pull the nation to the east. But to what east exactly? Russia's hold on its neighbours is weak as it barely maintains the integrity of its own borders in Chechnya, attempting to maintain its hold on a muslim nationalist movement within its borders and watching several other nationalist movements disrupt the neighbourhood. Armenian Christians, Kurds, Georgians, Azerbaijanis and Chechens are chomping at the bit to free themselves.

Complicating matters immensely are several interests, oil and religion being the most obvious. Ukraine has long been an important strategic breadbasket, but its value is also maintained by its location. It holds sway over important oil pipeline routes that Russia, drunk on oil money, is keen on exploiting. With regional capacity maxed out in most of the middle east, and OPEC loathing to expand production to decrease their oil prices, the industrious Russians are drilling themselves out of bankruptcy-and with Yukos, have nationalized themselves into being a key player once more.

An overlooked factor in the conflict has been religion and history. As Huntington has pointed out, the 1999 conflict in Serbia and Kosovo involved three major religious blocs: Muslims, Western Catholics/Protestants and Slavic/Eastern Orthodox. Just as in the 1914, where the Serbs erupted a firestorm drawing on the Slavic connection to Russia, the Motherland still sees its old western provinces as its own prodigal slavic sons. The eastern half of the Roman empire developed its own traditions, own orthodoxy and beliefs. Their development took on a life of its own, and the ethnic differences with the western half of europe intensified these differences. Stalin, being wise to these nationalist movements (and being from Georgia) recognized that they posed a danger to Soviet superstate, and undermined them with 'Russianization': moving masses of Russians into 'ethnic' states and patriating some of those ethnic groups across Russia. The other tie that bound them was an ideology of 'equality' as 'workers', all equal across the board: no offical minorities, just soviets, all.

Of course, democracy and liberty have never been concepts that have been applied strictly to western countries, but in many parts of the world, these concepts, derived from ancient Greek ideals are now seen as 'Americanization'. Even in Canada, the Senate has withstood withering criticism because of its lack of democratic mandate and usefulness, because reforming it to be a 'Triple E Senate' is seen as too 'American'. So the spectre of anti-americanism has played a big part of this conflict, as even the pro-Russian forces admit that this is a battle against the US. Undoubtedly, there are western Ukrainians who are non too keen on the US, but see freedom as being something desirable, despite the PR problem it might have.

How can the western Ukrainians overcome their eastern counterparts? They have to appeal to Ukrainian nationalism, and paint the obstructionist and tyrannical forces of the east into a corner: Are you loyal to Russia, or are you a patriot? They can also focus on being apart of the EU, which might offset the accusation of being 'pro american'. Also, appealing to the media is key. There has to be a concerted effort on the part of the opposition to get their message to the eastern shores. A seperatist movement in the east would leave the westerners landlocked, with little chance of an 'insta-deal' to open up trade with Europe. Strategically, it is key that Ukraine controls the eastern ports and when the reformers are in power, they seize the opportunity to establish their presence in the eastern side.

Ultimately, a hearts and minds campaign must be waged. The eastern half will not instantly become pro western, but if the US, Canada and the EU can support Ukraine the way they supported Berlin, there is a good chance that freedom's chances will improve.

posted by Shamrocks! @ 5:19 PM