Renegades!

Unlikely Bed Buddies: China and the EU

Collectivist thinking is making a comeback.

In the recent talks between China and the EU, an epiphane of monumental proportions occurred-An academic proclaimed "The idea of sovereignty is dead". He was referring to the new world that the EU had been envisioning since its inception, where no country would act unilaterally of its own interests without consulting the rest of the world, namely at the UN. As the continent that has undoubtedly seen its own share of unfortunate unilateralism, there can be some sympathy with this sentiment. For years, the textbooks of the western world have gone over and over the events leading up to the world wars: the tough stances, gunboat diplomacy, the imperialist overtones, the eventual outbreak of war.

China, the other partner in the recent talks, has also seen its own share of unilateral actions on the part of the Japanese. Although weak and defensive but under the protection of the US, the Japanese still instill a fear in China, as institutional memory of the last conquests of the mainland are somehow fresh. And, as the rising empire of the east, China naturally sees the US as its future competitor in trade, strength and power. The past emperors (Europe), see an opportunity in the future empire (China) back down to earth, and possibly remove what they both see as a threat to their own supremecy.

Of course, both sides are delusional about their own unilateralism. While China unbraids the US for its unilateralism, Tibet still smoulders, the Nepalese are overrun with Maoist rebels and Taiwan is in a constant state of war readiness. Hong Kong, by diplomacy or otherwise, has also begun to feel the wrath of its new owner. India, another rising country, hot on the heels of China, has been infiltrated by Maoists seeking to destabilize the countries eastern half, leaving the west to Jihadis from Pakistan. The EU for its part, has a number of Unilateralists on its membership, including France. While Germany, Italy and Britain (for the most part) have given up foreign ventures, France has clung to invading lesser nations at will. The Congo and the Ivory Coast are its most recent victims of France's African Adventures.

So what can the terrible twosome of China and the EU do to their nemesis of the United States? Plenty.

The most obvious consequence of the pairing of the EU and China will be economic. Their combined forces in the near future may begin to overtake the output of the US' 11 trillion USD in GDP. With this force, the US backed financial institutions will no longer be able to control the means to emergency financial backing ie: World Bank, IMF. These two institutions , for all their problems are idealistic backers of democratic reform and capital institutions. This of course, is the result of being the face of the US' own policy of exporting freedom and capitalism. If these financial institutions are marginalized, the Chinese and the EU could institute their own set of realpolitik in developing nations which may or may not have benevolent intentions. While the EU has certainly backed positive reform in Turkey (a neighbour and EU enthusiast) it may not think similarly about,say.. Central American countries. Countries that are, if need be, able to destabilize the US if there was a economic or financial disaster. The possibilities are endless.

There may be talk of a currency manipulation, where the Chinese will begin to dump massive amounts of USD onto the market to sink their economy, but this is unlikely for two reasons. The US still does a tonne of trade with China, and the Euro, the only other world currency, is already far too high in relative value. A continued upswing in the Euro would destroy EU exports and cause far too much internal strife. The Chinese currency reserve switch from the USD to the Euro is unlikely to occur in the short run.

Militarily, the combined pair are nothing to sniff at, but they lack cohesive strategic aims. The EU might have some military strength, but is essentially demilitarized and is not looking to militarily annexe close neighbours. China, for its part has a invasion force of 2 M soldiers, but lacks an airforce and is chiefly in a defensive stance. While China does want to secure 'historic China' ie: Taiwan, it is essentially an 'inwardly focused' country, as it has been for centuries. Invading Taiwan is a possibility....but not Japan. Although there is talk of the annexation of Siberia to meet a growing population of Chinese...

The issue of arms sales is another matter. With the US backing Taiwan, there has been a massive push within Europe to start sales to an angry China. The French, having lost a buyer in Iraq, is pushing the most on this front. They have capable arms ready for sale, and with nominal trade with Taiwan, lose nothing in diplomacy with the island. This would be diplomatic coup for the French, who have long neglected their relationship with the US, and would like to strengthen their relationship with the rising power. This plan will work perfectly until the US loses their first man to French arms that were sold to China.

The key consequence will be political. China and the EU frequently find themselves in the same boat at the UN, condemning the US and Israel for their actions. Continued political cooperation on the multitude of resolutions will continue, and a continued marginalization of the US diplomatically will occur. Politically and economically (in the future) outnumbered by the rising bloc of anti-Americanism, there will be a tough battle for the US in the years ahead if the enemies of the US begin to coalesce into one giant, collective behemoth.

posted by Shamrocks! @ 9:23 PM