Renegades!

Japan: Population And Policy

For the last 500 years, the population growth of many countries was seen as a given. In Japan, the massive population explosion of its islands was especially pointed. In the 1702, Tokyo (Edo) registered 1 million inhabitants, and 300 years later the population has grown over to over 30 million. Today though, there is a general panic in some quarters about the state of the nation. While a new emphasis on the appearance of youth masks the true state of the younger population, it's clear from census material that Japan is headed for a clear meltdown, with a huge elderly population weighing down the rest of the population: By 2050 the UN estimates over 42% of Japan's population will be over 60.

In Europe, the short term solution has been to import foreign youth from former colonies to take up positions in low skilled work. Europe, having only a mixed record on assimilating their immigrants, is facing significant challenges in meeting their population needs. Europe, for better or worse, has always been a part of the larger Euro-asian landmass, meaning that immigration flows from the east to west has been a factor. Ancient arab races once moved far west in great numbers, bringing flutes and strange garb that later became the bagpipes and kilts of Scotland.

Japan, by contrast, has been insulated by the "God's Wind" of typhoons that cast the Mongolians and Chinese back to the mainland. There is no history of massive migration to Japan, and no positive history of interaction with Japan's neighbours besides Taiwan. Refugees face a long process of internment and certification before they can stay in Japan, while most foreigners face significant challenges in attempting to stay in Japan. The government encourages snooping and informal reporting on foreigner activity; There are significant and legal glass ceilings on the hiring of foreigners for higher level jobs; There are no foreign communities to support new immigrants. Japan regards its social solidarity and homogeneous nature as a positive aspect to their national character.

In fact, the only time Japan has imported a foreign population was during World War 2 when Japan imported slave labour from Korea to work in Japan's war machine. While most Koreans returned to the peninsula after the war, small communities reside outside Osaka and Japan. These communities are completely insulated from the larger Japanese nation: They refuse in many cases to learn Japanese, have their own schools, and are not hired to work outside "Little Korea".

There is hope for Japan in this regard, however. Japan has long integrated the best of foreign ideas into their own national character because of the flexibility of the Shinto creed, which emphasizes taking the integrating of superior ideas of other nations into the Japanese culture. Shintoism encouraged the integration of Buddhism and Confucianism, and lead the Japanese to start integrating the industrialization that brought prosperity to the west. If immigration and the integration of foreigners becomes a must, Japan might be able to draw on this flexibility to incorporate pluralism into its national character.

In regards to the fertility rates, Japan is very unique in terms of its causes. While in the west, feminism and individualism are seen as two movements that encourage a lower rate, in Japan these movements are very weak in comparison. Japan's movement towards lower rates might because of higher education rates for women (when a woman might be her most fertile), and a far less religious population. In Japan, there is no bible belt of rural communities that usually have larger families to boost the overall population. Most Japanese live in close quarters in small apartments, with a child seen as a huge expense in terms of money, space and standard of living. While poorer societies see children as insurance in old age, Japan's rates of savings and wages see older Japanese being rich and pensioned without need for many children to look after them.

In addition, the Japanese have a system of Ie, that sees the oldest male of the family being the patriarch of the family. Generally speaking, the eldest males are seen as the ones most highly regarded and are given the lions share of respect and resources of a household. Ie also stipulates that the nuclear family, so prevalent in the west, is not the norm in Japan. Older family members, having gained the respect and resources of the youth, will be a burden in terms of needing support of the pensions but also in terms of space in already crowded homes.

The Japanese might not be able to fix their population problems in a generation, and there is no general feeling of crisis amongst the people: they are relatively rich and content despite the low growth in the economy. The government is being proactive in some respects, but using silly schemes to boost the domestic population by boosting romantic walks for couples in areas like Nara and Kyoto.

A key factor that has to be addressed is the lack of viable living space in most communities. The Japanese could start pushing its population into more rural areas like the northern island of Hokkaido with tax incentives and the development of cheaper energy resources allowing central heating for the northern communities, making these areas infinitely more hospitable. Japan also has to start looking to immigration as a viable alternative, and start preparing the people of the island to accept outside cultures. If Japan's policy makers are unable to address this problem of population decline, there will be a social crisis and possibly a face off in the legislatures as the monied and populated elderly vote for proposals that will be unpopular to the under 60 set. And as any student of Japan will tell you, while the Japanese surface emotions are usually stoic in nature, the bubbling undercurrent of passion that spills over in times of crisis is usually an eruption of repressed feelings that reveal themselves with explosive results.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

posted by Shamrocks! @ 5:52 PM