Renegades!

Land of the Rising Tension

The images of Japan in the west have been shaped by half-baked movies that Japan has rightly assumed to be the only images that the west understands of an ancient culture. To the western mind geishas, an undefinable wisdom, Godzilla, high tech electronics and compact cars are the staples of Japan's image. Perceptions of Japan, an inwardly focusing society, have alternately changed how the Japanese view themselves and their outward policies. One perceptions that Japan has held onto is that Japan was a freedom fighter in World War II for Asia, and that it's own suffering was comparable to any other war 'victim'. Memorials for the war dead at Yasukina and citizens from Hiroshima, Tokyo and Osaka concentrate on the Japanese experience and carefully avoid the awkward admissions of guilt from WW2.

This inward focus on the Japanese experience has meant that Japan has been able to pull away from its international responsibilities. While Japan has been under military protection and occupation, it has been able to be once more in a protective coccoon that combined with harsh immigration laws and a its northern island status allows Japan to watch the 'fire across the ocean' from afar. In the first Persian Gulf War, Japan pledged over $12 B. to defeat Saddam, and contributed a heavily protected SDF unit of a few hundred for the sequel.

The inward focus has had a disasterous affect on the nation's foreign policy towards its greatest asset and potentially its greatest threat-China. While Japan indifferently sees the rise of China, only pausing for an instant to consider that its new largest trading partner is now China, the mainland is viewing Japan a potential rival for influence and power. China, now feeling its own strength after a humiliating 200 years of foreign submission from abroad, is feeling a renewed nationalism bordering on jingoism. Recent trangressions ranging from the completely irrelevant and meaningless (A Japanese orgy at a Shanghai hotel, approval of rightwing history textbooks) to something more important (Japan competing in offshore oil reserves along international borders) have brought the Chinese into the streets to protest. While many protests have the Communist Party seal of approval stamped all over them, there is a widening allure of protests as the uprising against the Japanese lets off some steam for the disenfranchised Chinese, numbering in the tens of millions, while giving the Chinese leadership a free hand to take a hardening line in Japanese negotiations.

While using historical grievances and minor irritations with an unpopular neighbour (or people) takes the pressure off a government, the Chinese seem to be taking the aggitation a bit far. It may be possible that the Chinese are aware of the Japanese indifference to China's feelings on a range of issues, and are simply using Japan as a lightening rod for widening disparity on the mainland that has causes signficant social tension. Japan, plays the indifferent hegemon role to a 't', similar to most powerful countries such as the US,that pay little attention to self-conscious neighbours (Canada).

This will change in the near future.

While China pursues its 'string of pearls' strategy along its western and borders, shoring up monitoring posts and military ports in Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia and India, it keeps the US at arm's length, using Kim Jong-Il as the freak on a leash to keep the US bases away from its borders. India, for its part, has buried the hatchet with China, opening trade deals and an a gentleman's agreement on competition in far away oil fields where the Chinese and India struggle to keep supply open. While China seeks a 'Molotov-Ribbentrop' pact with India to keep it all quiet on the western front, it can focus on Japan, Taiwan and the US.

While China is looking to take on the West's local allies, Japan has been its diplomatic and domestic best to (unintentionally) prod the Chinese. Japan, looking westward for the goodwill of the US upped the tensions recently by signing military accords that amount to a diplomatic coup by the US, as Japan has openly sided with the US against China in the event of a war in Taiwan. This came hot on the heels of the approval of a history textbook that whitewashes the heinous crimes of the Japanese during colonial rule and throughout WW2. In the West, such an uproar over a book seems to be an overreaction, but if it was an isolated event it would be nothing. Japan's youth however, and much of Japanese society treat the pre-WW2 era as some aberration in their history that is shamefully put in the attic never to be talked about, like a crazy old aunt. This contrasts harshly with the Germans who faced up to their crimes quickly and started to heal, while the Japanese never hear about the Rape of Nanjin, the 'comfort women' from Asia, or the massive civilian massacres in the Phillipines. The war criminals from these atrocities are buried at the Yasukina Shrine, a shrine Prime Minister Koizumi visits yearly. If, for example, Gerhard Shroeder decided to visit Nuremberg to honour the German war dead from the World Wars, the uproar over Europe would be deafening. Koizumi, and recently Taiwan's Premier, Lee have visited the much publicized Shrine, only to hear scathing criticism all over Asia.

Taiwan, having secured a military backing from Japan, and a visa free visit for their leader, now enjoys tighter relations with its colonial master. Taiwan, from its own mildly positive experience under Japanese rule, still speaks Japanese in some quarters, and does a fair amount of trade with its northern neighbour to the ire of China. Japan has done nothing diplomatically to soften these blows to China, even hosting the Dalai Lama recently to put the icing on the cake.

The picture painted here is of a strong but inward looking nation (Japan) handing every opportunity to China to paint the Japanese as irresponsible for the ultimate prize that Germany, India and Japan are all vying for: permanent membership on the UN Security Council. While Japan can point to its economic power and population as reason enough for its 'peerage', China is taking steps (with Japan's ample help) to paint Japan as irresponsible in its Asian leadership, while bolstering India's membership. This is where it gets interesting: What is China trying to do? Why is it pumping up the public relations blunders of Japan, and amping up its own anti-Japanese sentiment to deprive Japan of a seat? Why would it wasted its own political capital on history textbooks?

There are several reasons, but two become more and more evident: Taiwan and North Korea. China rightly sees that Japan has sided against China in both of these contentious issues and therefore is firmly in the US' corner. Another seat on the UNSC would divide the voices claiming to speak for the Far East on these issues and dilute China's power to persuade the UN on these issues of strategic importance (North Korea and Taiwan) and manifest destiny (Taiwan). With the US' views being fronted by Japan, a proxy battle could erupt over influence in the Far East being played out in the UN's halls. If China can successfully thwart Japan at the UNSC while landing India a seat (Singh is already in debt to Wen for a variety of reasons), India will be obliged to tow China's line on matters of no importance to the subcontinent:

North Korea and Taiwan.

posted by Shamrocks! @ 5:17 AM