Renegades!

Non Comment

On May 29, 2005 the French will vote 'Non' in a referendum, killing the ratification of the European Constitution and will imperil the existence of the EU.

That's the way things look as of today. The Non side has gained a sizable advantage against an enfeebled graduate of ENA and leader of the political class, Jacques Chirac. While it would be easy to say it is simply a test of his leadership, but the truth is that France is beginning to feel as Euro-Skeptical as its uneasy northern neighbour, Britain. Mais..Pourquoi? France is unquestionably the most influential member of the EU, and had the most say over the constitution's writing. If it were not stated explicitly that Brusselles was the capital, one would surely assume that Paris was running the show, and only from Paris because Versailles ("Toutes Les Gloires De La France") is such a great tourist trap. France has reason to throw the baby and the bathwater on the heads of the political class that has dragged country into what has been a great economic and political success for France, but has thrown the people of France into a serious existential fable with only a Camus-like ending: Frustration, violence, inner turmoil, ethnic strife and a rejection of the world.

The growing skepticism that the EU inspires in France is not confined to one issue or another- it is a mosaic of problems that will be the heard in the voice of the French voters. While the administration of France has surged into post-Catholic, post-modern, post-communism and post-pill world with policies that fill the unskilled workforce with ghettos of disenchanted Muslims from former hellhole colonies, the French people have had to learn to deal with their compromised existence. In many Western nations, immigration has been a blessing that has constantly reinvigorated nations. In France however, there has been no effort to bring Muslim immigrants into the identity of France. They are a forever excluded group, dwelling in massive unpoliced and violent hoods, devoid of French language, culture or schooling. Instead of assimilation and acceptance, the French have dealt with new immigration with a pc solution (replace aging workers with young muslism immigrants), with decidedly un pc coping mechanisms (banning head scarves). The result is a burgeoning underclass of angry voters and parallel powers (an emerging Islamist movement) that threatens the values of the French Revolution.

The inability to assimilate and accept immigrants is only one of many problems. Another key problem for France is that it is has emerged from the most influential of the original six members to being one of the many twenty-five nations begging for recognition at the European dinner table. While France was one of only two nuclear powers, a larger population nation, and a significant economic power in the old union, the new union is becoming a haven for the eastern pro-US republics seeking shelter from their abusive Ex, the USSRussia. In essence, the EU's ship of state is far too large for any one nation to steer by itself, and the former Captain can no longer determine its course.

The enlargement of the EU doesn't just mean that Frances' relative size and power will be diluted, or that hostile immigration will inflame social tension, it also means that these that these two poison pills of accepting the constitution will be realized by one event:

Turkey's acceptance into the group.

Turkey, long a bridge from Europe into the wider continent and a symbol of hope to Middle Eastern democrats, represents the culmination of France's decimated power and increased social strife. If accepted, France may well fear that the gates of holding back the swarm will be lowered, and the nation will be overwhelmed by the massive eastern counterweight of 70 M Turks. The EU has already started its talks with Turkey, but to many EU voters it is a sure sign that their worst fears may be confirmed and that the rapid changes that have changed the face of Europe will continue.

This is say nothing of the growing trade disputes and stability pacts that have threatened France's heavily subsidized pastoral farms, the very mythic setting of France's past held close to the heart of every red wine swilling Frenchman.

France's Oui side may yet pull something out of its hat to save the referendum, but for the time being, the French Government and the Eurocrats will be dusting of plans B through Z to deal with a Non vote and those alternatives do not look pretty. While France can go back to the voters time and again until a Yes vote is secured (a la Ireland), Britain and the Netherlands will be voting in the meantime and will be heavily influenced by the outcome of this French vote.
It is possible that there will be a retrenching of power, where the original six maintain their relationships, while limiting the power of the newcomers and immigration from the East.

Whatever the outcome of the vote, the French will need to find solutions to its internal problems that cannot be swept under carpet of a decent economy and an ability to punch above its weight on the world stage.

posted by Shamrocks! @ 8:45 AM